Weekender Poll Corruption Roundup Open Comments

When the New York Times decides to try and discredit John McIntyre you know the imbeciles there have finally jumped the big shark.

How America’s Accurate Election Polls Were Covered Up

by Matt Taibi

John McIntyre couldn’t believe it. The publisher of the Real Clear Polling National Average, America’s first presidential poll aggregator, woke on October 31st to see his product denounced in the New York Times. Launched in 2002 and long a mainstay of campaign writers and news consumers alike, the RCP average, he learned, was part of a “torrent” of partisan rubbish being “weaponized” to “deflate Democrats’ enthusiasm” and “undermine faith in the entire system.”

“They actually wrote that our problem was we didn’t weight results,” says an incredulous McIntyre. “That we didn’t put a thumb on the scale.”

but here is where we start lining them up for the guillotines,

Six months ago, when former Wikipedia chief Katherine Maher became CEO of NPR, video emerged of her talking about strategies at Wikipedia. She said the company eventually abandoned its “free and open” mantra when she realized “this radical openness… did not end up living into the intentionality of what openness can be.” Free and open “recapitulated” too many of the same “power structures,” resulting in too much emphasis on the “Western canon,” the “written tradition,” and “this white male, Westernized construct around who matters.” 

Oh, but wait, look what happened…

Every major aggregate, that is, but RCP. McIntyre’s site was removed on October 11th, after Wikipedia editors decided it had a “strong Republican bias” that made it “suspect,” even though it didn’t conduct any polls itself, merely listing surveys and averaging them. One editor snootily insisted, “Pollsters should have a pretty spotless reputation. I say leave them out.” After last week’s election, when RCP for the third presidential cycle in a row proved among the most accurate of the averages, Wikipedia quietly restored RCP.

and this one,

Because it appeared on the scene years before Mark Blumenthal’s Pollster.com (2006) and Silver’s original FiveThirtyEight (2008), the Real Clear average has a long tradition of use by reporters; MediaShift in 2008 called RCP the “ultimate political aggregator.” But the Times in 2020 wrote a piece skewering it for a “hard right turn,” saying it “seemed skewed by polls that have been ‘a bit kinder to Trump.’” This year’s Times piece was even more harsh. As evidence that its “incentive is not necessarily to get things right,” as one of the paper’s sources put it, the Times cited RCP’s “No Tossups” map, which “currently shows [Donald] Trump winning every swing state,” as if this were inherently absurd.

“It was put out on Halloween, the week before the election,” McIntyre says. “They said, ‘Yeah, they had this crazy map that shows Trump winning all swing states.”

all the Leftists are tampering to receive the results they want,

Start with a basic fact: major aggregators like 270toWin, Silver Bulletin, 538, and the Cook Political Report, while useful, are not the uncomplicated averages many customers imagine them to be. “A poll average is simple,” says McIntyre. “You add polls up, and you divide by the number.”

But the “reputable” or “nonpartisan” averages are different. “Those are really models, but they don’t call them that,” McIntyre says. “The New York Times had an average and the Washington Post had one, but they’re not really averages. They’re more like, ‘This is where we want to say the race is.’”

Most “averages” or “aggregates” have pages that explain how they weight results, though the exact recipe is usually a mystery. The Times in September explained in a general way how it weights pollsters. To an unspecified degree it favors track records of “unbiased and accurate results” (note the term “accurate” isn’t by itself). It also upgrades for “professionalism,” which to the Times among other things means an average that “contributes microdata” to Cornell’s Roper Center or is a member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research.

 

 


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Shannon
Admin
November 24, 2024 10:59 pm
Adee
November 24, 2024 10:02 pm

The Packers were supposed to lose to the San Francisco gang according to the experts, but the Packers ran them out of Lambeau Field and half of the way home by the time the game ended. It was a sight to behold. And on top of it, it was cold today up there. Fall is definitely there now and Winter… Read more »

Tedtam
Admin
November 24, 2024 8:07 pm

Malone’s Sunday Strip – his version of a Sunday WIP. Did we ever post the WIP from Powerline?

https://www.malone.news/p/sunday-strip-the-ghost-of-future?publication_id=583200&post_id=152095130&isFreemail=true&r=pn3fy&triedRedirect=true

squawkbox
Admin
November 24, 2024 6:46 pm

Remind me later to explain why Fauci will never see the inside of a courtroom.
Here is a hint

Buhwahahahahaha
TRUMP

Bonecrusher
November 24, 2024 5:29 pm

A hillbilly take on Walk Like an Egyptian. Skip to 1:17
It has a stand up bass, so it has to be good.
Quite the contrast from that Highbrow Dr. phil Good stuff.

Last edited 8 hours ago by Bonecrusher
Dr phil Good-E=1984
November 24, 2024 5:18 pm

You wanna get cultivated?

Watch this.

best conductor ever.
Tedor Currentzis.
Phenomenal.
Verdi’s Requiem.

by George, Bentley ole boy.
Call Belvedere too.
kiss and Tom Jones better watch out.

now pass the Grey Poupon, Triscuits and caviar.

Last edited 8 hours ago by Dr phil Good-E=1984
Super Dave
November 24, 2024 1:55 pm

I had to make a run to the Pig but unlike yesterday, I wore my shorts and Tee shirt today. It may have been 36 when I got up but it’s 74 now. I do love living in the south. 😉

Last edited 11 hours ago by Super Dave
Dr phil Good-E=1984
November 24, 2024 11:46 am

The jersey boss man after his musk buying msnbc prediction.

AE019D32-8503-48E6-B93F-215504882798
Dr phil Good-E=1984
November 24, 2024 11:28 am

Given my track record on predictions, I know y’all will find this shocking, but after Elon took my suggestion seriously to buy MSNBC, I have hit another home run.

https://youtu.be/9bHXhRK-2kI?si=VKaaViBZ4n0QayOM

squawkbox
Admin
November 24, 2024 10:31 am

And now something totally different. If you are feeling insecure 6 Pray for the peace of Jerusalem: “May those who love you be secure. 7 May there be peace within your walls and security within your citadels.” 8 For the sake of my brothers and friends, I will say, “Peace be within you.” 9 For the sake of the house of the LORD… Read more »

Bonecrusher
November 24, 2024 8:31 am
Bonecrusher
November 24, 2024 8:28 am

Good morning fellow couch dwellers. I stayed outside last night and lit a fire in my new firepit. Once it gets going, it works very well. It is round, made with limestone blocks mortared in place, built in air holes in the bottom. I must admit that I enjoyed a glass or two of Honeyshine. The evening was quiet and… Read more »

wagonburner
Editor
November 24, 2024 8:25 am

re: college football

Never bet on a game where the ball bounces funny.

Tedtam
Admin
November 24, 2024 7:55 am

A message from Byrna: parking lot preparedness:
https://byrna.com/blogs/byrna-nation/byrna-pro-tip-holiday-parking-lots

Tedtam
Admin
November 24, 2024 7:48 am
Tedtam
Admin
November 24, 2024 7:40 am

I’m up and coffee’d. I must’ve done 5 miles walking yesterday. It was about a quarter mile from the car show site to the edge of the craft show, and walking through the craft show was probably a mile, up and down the streets, then the walk back. Show walking is slow, looking at the booths, stopping to shop (or… Read more »

Super Dave
November 24, 2024 6:42 am

SO! WTH is going on with college football? Texas defeats Kentucky, no surprise there but Oklahoma just stomps Alabama! BUT, wait! There’s more; Auburn beats Texas A&M!?! Auburn, a 5-6 team ?!?!

Super Dave
November 24, 2024 6:30 am

36 degrees for the third day in a row. OK I’ve had enough of winter.
Mornin’ Gang

squawkbox
Admin
November 23, 2024 9:31 pm

Watched Oppenheimer. Great movie……. we are screwed

Super Dave
November 23, 2024 8:30 pm
Shannon
Admin
November 23, 2024 8:23 pm

CBS has been running promos on a 60 Minutes story tomorrow about the new University Of Austin.
Bound to be a hit piece.

Last edited 1 day ago by Shannon
squawkbox
Admin
November 23, 2024 7:32 pm

Think about that

images1
Tedtam
Admin
November 23, 2024 7:30 pm

I saw a clip from “Demolition Man” in a podcast the other day, and since I’d never seen it, I thought I’d give it a try. Holy cow, I see what the liberal fantasy world would look like. And how incompetent and useless the liberals are to protect themselves. After you get past the part where Sly Stallone gets frozen… Read more »

Tedtam
Admin
November 23, 2024 7:28 pm

I’m home and showered. I took some muscle relaxant because my back is sore from all the walking today and the stiffened up on the drive home. I found my annual Santa and a possible lead on a bunch of cheap beads for future rosaries. Turns out one of the resale shop owners in Crockett *just* sent off a huge… Read more »

squawkbox
Admin
November 23, 2024 6:16 pm

Fans storming the field is STUPID

Super Dave
November 23, 2024 5:52 pm
Super Dave
November 23, 2024 5:47 pm

Texpat I.E. Turkey Brining Recipe, copied and saved, thanks.

Adee
November 23, 2024 5:38 pm

It is going dark fast tonight as we’re partaking of key lime pie for dessert, which I did not make. My days of making holiday meals are long behind me. I am retired. 🙂

Tedtam
Admin
November 23, 2024 3:06 pm

I saw a license plate: WOCNWOL

Till me as minute…. Then Lol

Shannon
Admin
November 23, 2024 1:57 pm

BTW, the big sticker on the back window of this morning’s old Chevy Wagon says, “Drunk On Lake Water”.
🙂

Last edited 1 day ago by Shannon
Dr phil Good-E=1984
November 23, 2024 1:27 pm

Still counting votes ballots in Californication 18 days after the election.

totalitariancrat ballot fraud on steroids.

Tedtam
Admin
November 23, 2024 1:00 pm

I am officially out of rosaries. And the sausage on a stick was delish. Good times.

Dr phil Good-E=1984
November 23, 2024 12:53 pm

The jersey boss man’s ode to Patty Shortcakes.

Last edited 1 day ago by Dr phil Good-E=1984
Super Dave
November 23, 2024 12:51 pm

Attn; Texpat I guess I didn’t write down your Turkey Brining Recipe so could you share it again? If you remember I tried it last year and BIL said the turkey was the best he’d ever had. 😉

Dr phil Good-E=1984
November 23, 2024 12:38 pm

Interesting old footage on the eve of the day the deep state, swampy Vampyres of ‘63, took out LH Oswald so he wouldn’t and couldn’t sing like a bird.

Dang.
in ‘63 the jersey boss man was putting playing cards in his bicycle spokes and secretly smiling at braided, ponytailed, Patty Shortcakes in 5th grade math class.

Last edited 1 day ago by Dr phil Good-E=1984
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