I think this is probably a gross overestimate but, at the same time, the rumors of a Democrat surge in the final days of the campaign are greatly exaggerated:
Michael Barone, co-author of the Almanac of American Politics, says either of the Gallup turnout models would produce “a Republican House majority the likes of which we have not seen since the election cycles of 1946 or even 1928.” Mr. Barone says the historical parallel might no longer be 1994, when the GOP gained 54 House seats, but instead 1894, when Republicans gained more than 100 House seats in the middle of the economic downturn that engulfed Democratic President Grover Cleveland.
Whatever happens it’s gonna be an interesting November.
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