China is in trouble, and this can only make them come to Trump with hands out. Or make them aggressive and want to steal from their neighbors.
First, a virus has wiped out a major protein source for their country:
With a mortality rate near 100%, ASF has swept through China’s hog industry, decimating their primary source of protein. Best estimates put losses at 30-35% of China’s 700 million swine population, and it’s still spreading across China and into neighboring Vietnam, Cambodia, Taiwan, and Mongolia.
As usual, Communist Party leaders deny there is an epidemic, but with a 35% reduction in protein available, and an even larger decimation possible in the future, the agriculture problem is serious—on its way to critical. This year China has already destroyed as many pigs as are raised annually in the United States.
That’s a lot of bacon going to waste. Already having a hard time feeding its people, there’s going to be a real challenge to keep them happy. “Feed them cake” may end up in the same result as the first time it was used.
Primarily because…
Well, enter the second plague: meet the Fall Armyworm. It can travel over sixty miles in a day (300 in its lifetime) and lay over a thousand eggs before it dies. It has no natural enemies and is extremely expensive to eradicate, especially for a nation of poor farmers.
The Fall Armyworm has been responsible for devastating China’s other sources of protein (and income). Crops of soybeans, wheat, corn, and rice, among others have been destroyed by this malicious pest. With the huge protein losses due to the swine epidemic, these other crops were critical in making up the difference.
And what does this mean for Trump?
The loss of export revenue brought about by the Fall Armyworm’s devastation couldn’t have come at a worse time for China, with President Trump’s hardline on trade, and tariff pressures. With China weakened by this twin assault on their agriculture industry, and with a faltering economy, we can expect that President Trump’s team will take full advantage as they hammer out a final trade agreement.
Any other president we’ve seen would have managed to turn this silk purse into a sow’s ear.
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