You may believe whether women are having babies in China has nothing to do with you, but you would be wrong. The number of childbirths in America is even more important.
Japan’s experience has confirmed that demographics matter for economic growth, and this will remain the case regardless of whether one looks at Germany, France, China, or any other country. Owing to a rapidly growing workforce and a young population, Japan’s GDP grew from a mere 9% of US GDP in 1960 to 73% in 1995, and its per capita GDP grew from 17% of America’s to 154% in the same period. By 1990, Americans had come to regard Japan as their chief rival, with polls showing that three times more Americans feared the economic threat posed by Japan than the military one posed by the Soviet Union.
Yet Japan’s GDP growth rate has been lower than America’s since 1992. That is when its ratio of working-age people (15-64 years old) to people over 65 began to fall below that of the United States. By then, its median and mean ages were five and three years above America’s, respectively, and its proportion of elderly people had already exceeded America’s the prior year. Its prime-age labor force (aged 15-59) has been declining since 1995, whereas America’s will continue to grow throughout this century. As of 2024, Japan’s GDP had fallen to just 14.5% that of the US, and its per capita GDP had fallen to 38% of the US level.
China’s population shrinks for first time in over 60 years, deaths outnumber births in 2022.
There is some very good and relevant data and quotations in this Financial Times article, but being the arrogant jackasses they are I am prohibited from lifting any excerpts for this piece.
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