Tuesday’s Strategic War Planning Open Commentary

Walker Percy is one of the more celebrated American novelists of the late 20th century.  One novel he wrote was titled Lancelot in which the protagonist is named Lamar A. Lancelot.  He is a convicted murderer of his wife and a summary of his fictional life is here.

The pseudonym adopted for the following two part essay is the same Lamar A. Lancelot.  He is a former high level and recognizable official in the Trump administration with many important things to say about how a future Trump administration might succeed or miserably fail.

This is no bulls**t important advice.

People can whine and bitch about useless congressmen and senators who have virtually no statutory or police powers and bitch about arrogant bureaucrats protected by ancient civil service laws and regulations, but there are only certain options a contrarian chief executive like Trump will have and he had better be aware of them.  The system has been modified and rigged against him and should he win again the lynching parties are going to be ready and waiting.

Irregular Order, Part I

What it will take to break the Deep State.

Happily, those preparing for the next America First administration understand how the lack of appropriate appointees weakened the Trump Administration. They are identifying and preparing a corps of “politicals” to drive implementation of the next America First president’s program. This effort is necessary and worthy of our support. However, we must recognize its limits.

and,

Quantity has a quality all its own. First, we face a profound problem of numbers. Even if the next America First administration finds high-quality politicals for all of the approximately 8,000 appointed positions that exist now, plus the approximately 50,000 identified in the “Schedule F” initiative, this relatively small cadre will oversee hundreds of thousands of career “feds” who can obstruct the president’s program, whether through active “Resistance” or simple foot-dragging. As we sawduring the Trump Administration, politicals cannot trust anything this bureaucratic host does—everything must be questioned, double-checked, and re-written. Sustaining this level of vigilance can wear down even the strongest among us.

a further part of the problem,

The part of the iceberg under the water. Even our analysis above does not fully convey the scope of the problem, because it does not consider the network of external ally and client entities with which the formal bureaucracy shares “governance” and through which it actually does much of what offends America First. This network includes state and local governments; “non-governmental” organizations, certain charities, and other “civil society” groups; labor unions, trade associations, and pressure groups; consultants, contractors, and other “implementing partners”; international and multilateral organizations; and academic institutions and think tanks.

and the first step of the solution,

Target the bureaucracy’s weakness. Happily, such approaches remain possible, if difficult to pursue, because the bureaucracy has a critical vulnerability: it has not yet discovered a generally-applicable way to fund itself and its clients without the intervention of Congress and the White House. The next America First administration must exploit this. Cutting off funding for whole offices, bureaus, programs, and activities would eliminate them at a stroke—sparing politicals from the procedural minutiae and litigation involved in firing individual feds or ending individual programs, while also starving the bureaucracy’s external clients.

The author not only provides solutions to the Deep State Leviathan, but he also explains all the naive assumptions about curing these problems and fighting the obstinate jackasses that have consumed and defeated Trump, past presidents and well-intentioned politicians.

Simply nominating great Cabinet members and other agency directors will not cut it.  The old adage about “Personnel is Policy” helps, but it is no longer the whole solution.

Irregular Order, Part II

In part I, we explored why America First cannot put its hopes in personnel alone; why we also need “irregular order” that exploits Deep State weakness; and “force multiplier” techniques for a relatively small cadre of America First political personnel.

Now we turn to the irregular order approaches themselves. All three use the bureaucracy’s critical vulnerability—funding—but at different points in the government funding process. None will be easy to execute. But any would be preferable to the status quo, where the Constitution’s Appropriations Clause has been reduced to an annual ritual of humiliation for the political branches of government.

These three approaches need not be used in the order presented below; rather, they could be used in a sequence or combined in a hybrid approach—e.g., constitutional impoundment for agencies that are amenable and soft impoundment for those that are not. Ultimately, however, “how” and “when” are questions of prudence for those who will pay the price and reap the rewards of irregular order.

Please read the whole thing.


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84 responses to “Tuesday’s Strategic War Planning Open Commentary”

  1. Super Dave Avatar
    Super Dave

    Well it seems that we’ve had an insurrection at the White house over the weekend with savages storming the gates and defacing the area around the White House including Lafayette Square SO I fully expect to see a massive investigation using video and facial recognition to round up all the perpetrators over a period of months and prosecute them to the fullest extent of the law…….Wait, what?! Oh they’re part of the protected class and can’t be touched. OK Never Mind.

    Mornin’ Gang

  2. Super Dave Avatar
    Super Dave

    Dang, more required reading and this looks real important I’ll have to book-mark it for later so I cna chek it out.

  3. Super Dave Avatar
    Super Dave

    Are the powers that be finally turning on Biden since Trump is beating him in 5 swing states? I ask because David Axelrod has said he should step down. I’ll add that he said this on CNN and said it was because of Biden’s age!?!?! I get so tired of this, it’s NOT his age! There are plenty of 90 year old men and women that could make a good President but not only is Biden demented, his policies have caused inflation and are hurting the common folks, he’s got us in two wars and the border is wide open.

  4. Tedtam Avatar

    Super Dave

    You totally made my point that age isn’t the issue, and I wish people would quit saying that. There are lots of old people with lots of experience, who are just as sharp as any 35 year old in his prime. It is not physical age, it is cognitive ability. Frankly, I think everyone who runs for Congress, president, or any leadership position in the government should be taking a cognitive ability test. That alone will probably take out half of the folks in congress, since I believe many of them have some form of dementia to begin with. But, it will keep those with lots of experience and the ability to use that experience in place. I refuse to say anyone is “too old” to run or lead.

  5. Dooood Avatar

    Well it seems that we’ve had an insurrection at the White house over the weekend with savages storming the gates and defacing the area around the White House…

    Now SD, you know it’s only an “insurrection” when white people on the right side of the political landscape are the perpetrators.  Otherwise it’s referred to as a “passionate protest”.  It’s easier figuring out this Newspeak thing than I had anticipated.

  6. Tedtam Avatar

    It’s not a passionate protest. It’s a peaceful, or mostly peaceful, protest.

    Disregard the property damage and the ambulances…

  7. Super Dave Avatar
    Super Dave

    I stumbled across a forgotten beauty; 60 Dodge D500 Polaris, the last of the fins.

    Equipped with the insane 413 Wedge Twin 4 Bbl’s Cross Ram Intake. 

    I sure wish that they still made “Automobiles” instead of just cars. 🙁

  8. Super Dave Avatar
    Super Dave

    Otherwise it’s referred to as a “passionate mostly peaceful protest”.

    Insert dreaded acronym here. 😉

  9. Super Dave Avatar
    Super Dave

    Oop’s I just noticed that Tedtam had already corrected Doood’s post. Will I ever learn to scroll up?..Naw, can’t be.   😀

  10. Tedtam Avatar

    REVENGE PLOTS ☙ Tuesday, November 7, 2023 ☙ C&C NEWS

    Good morning, C&C, it’s Tuesday! Your roundup includes: a strange Damar Hamlin resemblance; House releases interim censorship report and it turns out most of our problems are coming from Stanford; Washington Post terrified of conservative plans for 2024 election; a terrific idea for how to pushback against the Rainbow Army in schools; SADS judo Olympian, child actor, lead singer, and fashion titan; Zelensky cancels elections in the democratic outpost of Ukraine; and the least surprising development yet out of the pandemic, but which was tricky to discuss in this family blog.

    NEWS:

    The New York Post ran a story yesterday headlined, “New Emails Show DHS Created Stanford ‘Disinfo’ Group That Censored Speech Before 2020 Election.” It could have been headlined, How Stanford Basically Put a Kid Who Looks 16 In Charge of All Social Media. Meet Graham Brookie,..

    /snip

    … the House Judiciary Committee released an interim report yesterday concluding that Stanford University was essentially the hub of a vast criminal conspiracy to censor conservative speech in advance of the 2020 election. …Stanford and its demonic officials orchestrated an insurrection, interfered with the presidential election, and conspired with swarms of government officials to deprive U.S. citizens of their Constitutional rights.

    … the gist was that in classic…. ‘actual’ literal fascism — Stanford served as the hub between a bunch of acronymed NGO’s — almost certainly funded by the tax dollars of the same citizens who were being censored — and university students and faculty, interfacing the NGO’s (who were picking which speech to censor) with government agencies who then sent officious threatening emails to private social media companies, basically telling them what and who to censor on a day-by-day, hour-by-hour basis.

    Childers inserts a graphic which explains how Big Gov intertwined itself with Stanford to censor and filter information to the public.

    Stanford and the other members of the “prestigious” university club believe both that they are simultaneously (1) entitled to our money and (2) smarter than we are. Unfortunately, they hallucinate a perfectly rotten idea that the “smartest” people around should be able to tell everybody else what to do and be supported by them at the same time, never mind that history has proven such technocratic systems are only effective at filling mass graves.

    Four legs good, two legs BETTER!  I may put that on a shirt.  those that know Orwell will get it.  Most of the great unwashed will have no clue.  But they vote. /sigh

    It used to be that the rebels in college were mostly peaceful ineffective in general, and most of them grew out of the pubescent anger as they adulted into the Real World.  However, Big Gov realized that colleges were fertile ground for future insurrections Marxist revolts Social disarray sheeple voters.

    Obviously Stanford has grown too dangerous for us to allow it to keep wandering around society and it should be powered down…. Let’s see, what else we could do?

    Oh wait! Trump and the Heritage Foundation have some ideas.

  11. Tedtam Avatar

    This weekend, the Washington Post ran a hysterical, long-form, non-paywalled article headlined,Trump And Allies Plot Revenge, Justice Department Control In A Second Term. Revenge plots! The sub-headline darkly warned, “Advisers have also discussed deploying the military to quell potential unrest on Inauguration Day. Critics have called the ideas under consideration dangerous and unconstitutional.”

    Clearly the WaPo became very upset when it discovered that the Trump Team is working with the Heritage Foundation to draft various procedures and executive orders intended to drain the swamp and safeguard the 2024 election. In particular, WaPo was incensed at Trump’s alleged plans to investigate a whole slew of people in the federal government, including both democrats (like Biden and his family) as well as Republicans (like Attorney General Bill Barr and Retired General Mark Milley).

    Trump and Heritage have also suggested deployment of the U.S. Military under the Insurrection Act, to protect the 2024 election from violent protests and other types of election sabotage.

    WaPo is wrapping the ‘banana republic’ banner around Trump, disregarding the actual BR activities now ongoing.  But no, what Trump is proposing is totally different from his current travails!  Trump’s 91 charges were all made up independently of the White House. /snuffle snort!

    … And don’t worry, Biden and Garland would definitely tell us if they were prosecuting Trump banana republic style. They wouldn’t lie about something like that.

    Neither would the Washington Post, dummies. How dare you.

    /snip

    Seriously, though, I’m not a fan of banana-republic-style political prosecutions when anybody does it. But the banana-colored feline is out of the Republic’s bag, or words to that effect. Reform would be great. We desperately need criminal justice reform across the board; we should strip from the books all the so-called strict-liability (intent-less) crimes, the process crimes, the victimless crimes, and so forth. It shouldn’t be a felony to lie to a federal officer if the lie is not about anything material, for example.

    The news story also failed to report the plans to disrupt the next election and potential R presidency.  Plans include shutting down the city on inauguration day, interfering with shipping, and maybe even planting incendiary devices to disrupt economic activity – unless there’s a Trump Dump.

    And those are just the ones we know about.

    Because if you can’t win in the arena of ideas…you cheat!

    Childers gets a little more optimistic, as is his wont:

    Here’s what to take away from this story. For over two years now, I’ve heard conservatives complain about the stolen election and the lack of planning about how to actually drain the swamp. But there IS planning going on about how to drain the swamp. And there is planning going on about how to secure the elections. There are two very good reasons why you haven’t heard more about those plans.

    First, Establishment Media will never report anything that would buoy conservative hopes. So it’s not like they’ll be advertising it for us. Second, it’s not time yet. Especially as to election security, if remedial security plans were unveiled too soon, then cheaters would have time to develop countermeasures. Some things have to be done early and publicly, like changes to elections laws in some states, and we’ve seen those. But as for other strategies, one must wait till very close to the election before revealing the whole plan.

    Remember Trump’s doctrine of not disclosing military moves beforehand?  Yup.  The media was wissed off about that, but too bad.  It’s a smart move.  We don’t have to know everything. 

  12. Tedtam Avatar

    Did y’all know that there’s a “straight flag”?  Childers’ wife suggest that it be hung up next to the alphabet flags in the classroom as pushback.  Don’t cancel the weird stuff, just emphasize that normal is a viable option, too.  It was designed by attorney Mark Yoder:

    https://www.instagram.com/reel/CzC2YeapvtV/?igshid=MW40aHhpanM2b3k5Mg%3D%3D

    Yoder’s idea is not to try to cancel the rainbow flag or even attack it at all. The strategy is to teach normal kids to ask teachers to also hang up the “straight flag;” the flag that represents them and their beliefs. Obviously, woke teachers will obstinately refuse. Yoder, bless him, put together a ‘packet’ of case law and materials instructing parents, students and teachers about how viewpoint discrimination violates the Constitution.

    If teachers hang a pride flag, they must also hang up a straight flag (at least, upon request).

    If the teacher refuses, it becomes intentional discrimination and becomes a legal millstone for the school.

    It seems pretty clear the ultimate result of a national straight-flag movement would be the banning of all sex-preference flags. Which would be great.

    Spread the word!

  13. Super Dave Avatar
    Super Dave

    From yesterday;

    #15 Dr phil Good-E=1984 says:
    November 6, 2023 at 5:08 pm

    Love Trump and his personality.

    best president in my lifetime.

    better than Reagan who signed the disastrous 1986 amnesty bill.

    I just wanted to say that I agree with you. 😉

  14. Tedtam Avatar

    More SADS reports from the Suddenly & Unexpectedly Department.  They range in age from 24 to 60, and all appear to be at least reasonably fit and healthy.

    RIP to them all, and to their loved ones who mourn them.  And to all of those who remain unnamed and unnoticed.

  15. Tedtam Avatar

    I saw the next story a day or two ago:  it seems that women prefer the unjuiced sperm donors:

    …Nobody could’ve seen this coming. The Daily Mail UK ran a stimulating story yesterday headlined EXCLUSIVE: Demand for unvaxxed sperm spikes: Women turning to shady Facebook groups to find unvaccinated sperm donors.

    The slippery Daily Mail spent most of the article’s column inches ‘debunking’ the notion that mRNA vaccines impact fertility, mainly because the CDC said so. But I’m not sure fertility is the entire reason why some women are wanting unjabbed … fertility materials…

    But it doesn’t prove anything! At least not to the Mail’s reporters, who presumably feel unfairly left out because they can’t qualify for the Unjabbed Sperm Donors group, and so they just feel totally discriminated against. Stupid conspiracy theorists.

    Or, it’s another covid miracle; the startling rise of an entirely-new industry that didn’t even exist three years ago. How about that? And all we men had to do was not get a shot.

  16. Tedtam Avatar

    I just took a peek through Elsa’s window and was surprised to see that my veggie stock “pucks” are crumbling.  My chicken stock pucks held together.  I guess the proteins are the difference.

    I pushed the knee a little bit yesterday, and good news – it’s a little tender today, but not in a “set me back” way.  I’ll try to take it easy today, but it’s a hopeful sign that I’m on my way to ridding myself of crutches.

    This is taking ever-so-long to heal.  /frustrated

  17. Texpat Avatar
    Texpat

    The percentage of voters who cast ballots during the early voting period was about 9 percent both in 2015 and 2023, according to Brandon Rottinghaus, a professor of political science at the University of Houston. A total of 239,325 people voted in Harris County during early voting this year, which spanned from Oct. 23-Nov. 3.

    Rottinghaus described this year’s early voting turnout as “good but not great” and said it signals that Houstonians could be less concerned about Election Day on Tuesday and more focused on a likely runoff in December. Or, he said, it means voters are generally disengaged from this year’s candidate field and the issues they’ve been discussing – even in a crowded mayoral race headlined by two well-known local politicians, U.S. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee and Texas Sen. John Whitmire.

    “It’s unfortunate,” Rottinghaus said. “In a race with high-profile candidates and a lot of money spent, at a time of real importance for the city, people just don’t seem more engaged than they have been in the past.”

  18. Texpat Avatar
    Texpat

    A man in Ohio sat about “20 feet off the ground” in a vehicle he allegedly tried to steal from a wrecking yard while waiting for police to arrive to arrest him.

    and then,

    Business employees told WOIO this incident is the third involving the suspect, whom they identified as 26-year-old Alexander Funk, yet the first time he has been caught.

    The footage shared from the Akron Police Department is dated Oct. 17, and shows officers at the jail afterward discussing what happened.

    “He broke into a car at the junkyard, and before he could get out, he’s done it before, they got like a forklift, and they had him, I’m not kidding, like 20 feet off the ground, so when we got there, he went right into custody,” the officer said while others chuckled.

  19. Texpat Avatar
    Texpat

    The U.K.-based Institute for Monitoring Peace and Cultural Tolerance in School Education (IMPACT-se) wrote in its 123-page report released Monday, that “at least 14 teachers and staff at UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees) schools have publicly celebrated the October 7 massacre and other Hamas attacks on their social media accounts.”

    The Biden administration has given the U.N. agency $1 billion of taxpayers money since 2021. UNRWA operates schools and other humanitarian services in Gaza, the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Lebanon, Jordan and Syria. It has faced intense criticism that it perpetuates the conflict between Israel and Palestinians by warehousing alleged refugees and failing to rope in the teaching of Islamic-animated terrorism, violence and antisemitism.
    We’ve been pouring millions, up to 500 million, dollars a year into the UNRWA bank accounts.  Donald Trump slammed the checkbook shut on these murdering assh***s.  In the first days after taking office, Biden started the money pipeline again.  Under Clinton, Bush, Obama and now Biden there is no telling how many billions have gone to this wasted, destructive, evil group.
  20. Bonecrusher Avatar
    Bonecrusher

    TP 0941:  How many billion$ has the US taxpayer given to the UN?  That entire organization has been an impediment to the success of US Capitalism since its founding.

    Get the UN out of the USA and get the USA out of the UN.

  21. Texpat Avatar
    Texpat

    Liel Leibowitz responds to Barack Obama:

    In 1953, the Swiss novelist Max Frisch published a play called The Arsonists. It’s a pitch dark comedy about a small town ravaged by a group of maniacs disguised as traveling salesmen, who sweet-talk their way into people’s homes and then set them on fire. Its protagonist is a dolt called Biedermann—bieder being German for honest, respectable, and upright. He’s aware of the danger, and yet, when the arsonists knock, he lets them in. The tragedy, Frisch argues, is that he almost has no other choice: The arsonists are such smooth talkers that it’s easy, when listening to them, to ignore the large drums of kerosene and the matches they’re holding in their hands.

    I thought of The Arsonists this week when I heard snippets of a podcast interview featuring former president Barack Obama on the Middle East. “Nobody’s hands are clean,” Obama said. “All of us are complicit.

    Nah, man. Not all of us are complicit. It’s just you.

    When I first heard Obama’s quote on the TV, I started yelling at the screen so loudly Her Highness had to tell me to calm down.

    It’s you, because you’re the one who gave that stentorian speech about red lines in Syria and then sat by and did nothing as those red lines were crossed and Assad continued to slaughter his own people, allowing the Iranians and the Russians to creep in and fill the vacuum left by your devastating lack of leadership.

    Bashar Assad has murdered over 200,000 of his own people by several different accounts. The world has already forgotten how many his father killed.

    It’s you, because you’re the one who came up with the idea of empowering Iran, the world’s premiere exporter of terrorism, Holocaust denial, and chaos, all the while telling the American people you were merely trying to stop Teheran from getting a nuclear bomb. Billions of dollars and thousands of dead later, we can all see how well this idea—which you, with the eloquence only a professor could muster, called “regional integration”—is working.

  22. Texpat Avatar
    Texpat

    There is something very strange going on I find unexplainable.

    Shipping worldwide has crashed.

    Fed-Ex is telling its flight crews to get jobs on some of the regional airlines begging for pilots because business is so slow.

    Trucking companies are cutting rates, laying off drivers…

    Ocean freight has also plunged.

    It is not being reflected in other economic news or data and you hardly see anything in the business press.

    ????

  23. squawkbox Avatar
    squawkbox

    Texpat

    It is not being reflected in other economic news or data and you hardly see anything in the business press.

    Dude we have been lied to so much on the data and the news and the bidness press is in cahoots with the fed putting lipstick on this pig we call our economy.

    You look at fed numbers I look at what business is doing.  It starts with shipping.  Take a look shipping maps and you will find deliveries to the West coast ports have been down since Covid.  Check those same maps and you will see huge numbers of parked vessels and boats leaving china has dropped to “nothing” since during and since Covid.  The numbers we are presented with are a lie.  Amazon, Walmart and other big box stores last year canceled huge amounts of containers months before Christmas.  You guys chastised me saying that was normal.  Wait  that was the first time I have ever heard of those numbers CANCELED so many months before Christmas.  It was in no way normal.

    Amazon made a big news splash canceling warehouse expansions, and I saw a that a large number of their warehouses are closed and being sold off.  Drive around Houston and you will find HUGE swaths of business properties are empty.Office occupancy is down at least 40% and i have seen numbers that it could be as high as 60% in greater Houston.  I have been retired form trucking for years.   I have been offered entire truck fleets (3-7) because the owner operators said the loads were way down and costs were way up.  This phenomena is rampant thrpough the industry contrary to what we have been told.  The guys I see quoting are really long term vets.  When these guys quit there is something terribly wrong.

    Inflation has taken its toll on consumers.  Biden says all is well, Fed reports say all is well, talk to the regular jokers in Walmart or wherever and the reality is discretionary spending is way down.

  24. Bonecrusher Avatar
    Bonecrusher

    The Krugtron say that if you don’t count fuel, food, and housing, there is no inflation. . . . .

    What a moron.

  25. Tedtam Avatar

    ….and this is why I have jars and bags of food….

    Just in case.

    The best thing that can happen is that I have food on the shelf.  The worst thing that can happen is I have food on the shelf.

  26. Tedtam Avatar

    I had a conversation recently with Eldest Sis.  She likes to have her retirement mostly in cash.  After analyzing it, she thinks it’s because after her divorce, when she was trying to live and raise her daughter all by herself, my mother kept asking her for money (Mom had divorced Dad, who didn’t pay child support – Mom had at least 3 kids and no special job skills and was an “older hire” on top of that).

    The stress of trying to support Mom and herself really put Eldest Sis into a “I like to have cash ready and on hand” mentality.  Cash is her security blanket.

    As for me, I remember my mother looking at us resentfully as we ate dinner.  I felt guilty some nights, every forkful necessary but dreaded.  There was a constant dark cloud of a sense of “never enough” in the house.  As a kid, I didn’t understand fully the stress she was under, but the impression of not having enough food was ingrained in every fiber of my being as a kid.  For me, food is my security blanket.

  27. Dooood Avatar

    Inflation has taken its toll on consumers.

    And how was the ground work for this laid?  Years of ZIRP, bailing out businesses, and spending more on social services than was even close to being feasible/sustainable.  We always knew the tab for that abomination of fiscal policy was coming sooner or later.  We also always knew that both parties were complicit in creating the mess and furthering ZIRP.  Donald Trump did no better at this than his predecessors; in fact, it might be viewed that he did worse (due to COVID spending).  Face the reality that you’ve been sold out by your own government and at least some portion of your fellow citizens and decide what you’re going to do about it.  They’ve been languishing in your OODA loop.  Is it not time now to get in theirs?

  28. Texpat Avatar
    Texpat

    19 Squawk

    Amazon, Walmart and other big box stores last year canceled huge amounts of containers months before Christmas.  You guys chastised me saying that was normal.  Wait  that was the first time I have ever heard of those numbers CANCELED so many months before Christmas.  It was in no way normal.

    I don’t remember ever saying those mass cancellations were normal.  I do remember being pleased it would be that much less business for China.  There has been very little about business I would consider normal since the COVID hysteria began in early 2020.

    Real Estate

    I have been predicting a huge commercial real estate crash for at least a dozen years.  I have written about on this site many times.  We move close to the cliff and then Wall Street and the Big Banks move in to save the industry once again.  It’s only a matter of time.  Houston was overbuilt in a number of areas when I moved up here in 2003.  Every time I come back to Texas I’m appalled at the empty buildings everywhere in Texas.  It’s not just there – New Jersey is the same.  They recently tore down a fairly new, first-class 4 story large office building near me and replaced it with a sprawling 3 story mini-warehouse facility.  It was stunning to watch that happen.

    A witty kind of dude on Wall Street 25 years ago said “Houston is where all retail chains go to die.”

    The relatively cheap abundant land, low operating costs, available new space, lack of overbearing government regulation and a booming economy have always attracted every retailer in the world to Houston.  Retail business in Houston is notoriously competitive – bloody is more like it.  It’s also the home to the best, most efficient and aggressive real estate developers in North America.  Nobody builds bigger, better and faster than Texas construction companies.

    When I first arrived here I met an executive of a real estate investment company.  When I asked him if they had properties in New Jersey, he laughed.  He said they had an $800 million portfolio in real estate and it was all in Texas.  He also said investing in New Jersey real estate is a waste of time and money for no other reason than the ridiculous state and local regulations.

    But bankers, investors and developers never learn the lessons.  This next real estate bust is going to be bigger than anyone has ever seen though.

  29. Tedtam Avatar

    I don’t ever remember chastising anyone for making their predictions.

    I’ve always respected Squawk and his knowledge of his bizness.

  30. Tedtam Avatar

    Bsue

    If you ever decide to FD veggie stock, cover it with parchment paper. Mine is literally powdering the entire inside chamber of Elsa, and the pucks are disappearing.

    The chicken stock never had that problem.

  31. Dooood Avatar

    I agree there will be a CRE crash, but that will be but one aspect of it.  Rates will return to more historical norms in the 7-10% range at first, and then perhaps beyond as things progress.  Credit in general will get tighter (as has already begun).  There’s still a substantial amount of money out there with its foundations in unrealistically low interest rates.  This will come unwound for certain, but the question is how suddenly and disruptively.  Then there’s the medical aspect of social services which I mentioned the other day on here.  The biggest item in the federal budget is that (Medicare / Medicaid), which is approaching $1.475 trillion as of this writing, and it’s ~85% unfunded.  Is there a possibility of you needing emergency medical services within the next few years?  Well… understand that there is a very real possibility that it will simply not be available to you.  We are now in the early stages of becoming third world.  Donald Trump can not and will not fix this.  On the upside, short-term treasuries are a worthwhile place to park money currently.  That’s what happens when rates return to reasonable levels.

  32. Texpat Avatar
    Texpat

    26 Dooood

    I agree there will be a CRE crash, but that will be but one aspect of it.  Rates will return to more historical norms in the 7-10% range at first, and then perhaps beyond as things progress.  Credit in general will get tighter (as has already begun).

    You can’t have a CRE collapse without the domino effect.  One good result of the 2008-2009 financial crisis was it tightened up a lot of sloppy practices in banking and made most, but not all, of them more conservative and healthy.  The next crash will take out the big regional banks because they are the most leveraged into CRE.  Smaller banks, local chains and the huge banks will survive.  For better or worse, we”ll have a distinctly bifurcated banking system of behemoths like JP Morgan Chase and Citibank and your local small town banks like the one I use.

    The political power struggle over interest rates will be brutal.  Politicians want low rates to get elected, but these produce rapid inflation which destroys lives and economy in the long run.  High interest rates kill businesses, crash the housing market/real estate which eventually begins to shut down furniture, flooring, lumber, fixture, paint, appliance, door/window manufacturers and trucking, etc. etc.

    NOTE:  When I was 30 years old, people could make $35-40K a year and buy a starter home for roughly the same amount even though the interest rates were 13 to 14 %.

    Today, a young couple making $140K together are buying starter homes for $350,000.  It’s nuts.  So if rates go back 8 or 9%, the payments on that home will be prohibitive and nobody will it.

     

  33. Dooood Avatar

    Today, a young couple making $140K together are buying starter homes for $350,000. It’s nuts. So if rates go back 8 or 9%, the payments on that home will be prohibitive and nobody will it.

    That: forcing a price collapse is exactly what should and will happen. Deflation FTW. Make life affordable again. To make that happen money has to cost money.

  34. Dooood Avatar

    The next crash will take out the big regional banks because they are the most leveraged into CRE.

    Agreed, and within minutes of reading your post I read this:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/regional-bank-reckoning-looms-regulators-call-fhlb-limits

    There’s a lot about ZH to not like, but they get a lot right too.

  35. squawkbox Avatar
    squawkbox

    Texpat

    I don’t remember ever saying those mass cancellations were normal.

    I looked, twernt yew. My bad.  I’ll leave that right here and move along.

    Anyway this disaster has been in the making for a couple years now.  We are in a deep recession if not depression but won’t have it officially told us till it is so deep the Fed will no longer be able to ignore it.  Why izzit for the past 8 months that job growth has been great but check back a month later that the numbers are ratcheted down way down for each month..

  36. mharper42 Avatar
    mharper42

    I looked at the voting sites in my Near NW part of Houston yesterday, and was startled to see that some nearby schools that I’ve used in recent years were not listed at all for this election. I saw a middle school that I was totally unaware of, only 2-3 blocks off Antoine which I am on several times a week, for pharmacy, minor grocery needs, pet hospital I use now, car shop I use now, etc. Now the trend tells me that since I used the middle school today, it probably won’t be listed again. But I sure liked it today.

    Voted in a huge athletics room, gobs of free parking, not many voters today so no waiting at all. But at least I’ll know to check for that location.

     

  37. Adee Avatar
    Adee

    We voted early and went to our usual polling place in a Richmond middle school near us in Pecan Grove.  It was in early afternoon, and the room was empty except for us and the poll workers until one lady arrived just as we were leaving.  Most of the cars in the parking lot belonged to school staff and election helpers.  A special place was designated for voters as close to the door as possible.

    I haven’t seen anything in the Fort Bend Herald about early voting attendance yet.  If what we saw was a sample of voter attendance, it was smaller than usual.  Since voting by mail is available again, perhaps that had a lot of voters taking advantage of it.

  38. Tedtam Avatar

    Bsue

    Don’t waste your time on veggie stock. There not enough left on my trays to save.

    Lesson learned.

  39. Shannon Avatar
    Shannon

    Eighteen sorry candidates for Houston Mayor failed to generate any real excitement.

  40. Adee Avatar
    Adee

    Sunset is complete now as darkness moves in at 5:45PM.  That shock hangs on for quite a while after Daylight Time shifts back to Real Time.  Ugh.

  41. Shannon Avatar
    Shannon

    Adee

    Though a bill hasn’t made it to the Governor’s desk, both the Texas House and Senate have passed bills in recent years to keep Texas permanently on Daylight Saving Time.

    Unfortunately, even with a bill signed into law by a Texas Governor,

    Federal law lets states exempt themselves from observing daylight saving time — meaning they remain on standard time year-round — if they pass state laws doing so. But states do not have the power to permanently observe daylight saving time.

     

  42. Shannon Avatar
    Shannon

    If you need to mow, now is the time. Wet and chilly predicted for at least 5 days starting Friday.

  43. GJT Avatar
    GJT

    Our voting place was the Cowboy Church on 1488 between here and Fields Store. Went in about noon and it was pretty busy, I think there were about nine machines and we were about sixth in line.

  44. GJT Avatar
    GJT

    I’m still without mower, John Deere rider needs engine work and tractor needs spindle bearings and belt. Grass is not too bad but sure would like to cut it. Think I’m up to starting on the rider but won’t beat the rain I don’t believe. But maybe….

  45. Shannon Avatar
    Shannon

    I voted back on the 2nd day of early voting. Those property tax Amendments need to be passed.

    If we can’t get enough Texans out to vote for that, we’re doomed anyway.

  46. GJT Avatar
    GJT

    Couldn’t sway lib neighbor to go vote, probably not even registered. He don’t care MSNBC hasn’t told him to care about it.

  47. Shannon Avatar
    Shannon

    Will be watching the Virginia State legislature vote closely.

     

  48. Shannon Avatar
    Shannon

    Stupid, Unregistered Libs are the ones I can stand.

    Sorta.

  49. Shannon Avatar
    Shannon

    Gramps

    Cooking up a smoked Elk sausage from a friend.

    I’ve tried to convince him for years to add more more pork. 50/50 just doesn’t cut it with elk.

    Hard headed SOB. Gonna spend all that money hunting in the high country, only to pinch pennies on processing?

    /smh

  50. Shannon Avatar
    Shannon

    Early voting returns have all Amendments passing.

  51. squawkbox Avatar
    squawkbox

    Couldn’t sway lib neighbor to go vote, probably not even registered. He don’t care

    I’m liking the guy more and more.  Skip the vote 2023-2024

    And I am still gonna complain.  I looked at the Constitution again and no where does it say I lose my right to speak if I do not vote, redress Congress or anything like that.  (I do not have the right to be heard though and I am okay with that) I am currently working with a rather large group of people across all 50 states for this cause expressed below:.

    (I love this document)

    When in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the Powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

    We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.-That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed,-That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles sand organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed.

  52. squawkbox Avatar
    squawkbox

    If I have to fight then I am going to fight for something I believe in.

  53. Texpat Avatar
    Texpat

    Squawk

    Why izzit for the past 8 months that job growth has been great but check back a month later that the numbers are ratcheted down way down for each month…

    HEADLINE:

    I Made $800,000 Last Month Betting on Pickleball Playoffs !

    3 weeks later…

    footnote:

    Oops, I actually only made $800.  Sorry about that.  The comma and decimals were put in the wrong place by my staff.  It’s their fault, by God, it is always their fault.

  54. Dr phil Good-E=1984 Avatar
    Dr phil Good-E=1984

    Uncklo says

    Though a bill hasn’t made it to the Governor’s desk, both the Texas House and Senate have passed bills in recent years to keep Texas permanently on Daylight Saving Time.

    Unfortunately, even with a bill signed into law by a Texas Governor,

    uncklo didn’t say…Federal law lets states exempt themselves from observing daylight saving time — meaning they remain on standard time year-round — if they pass state laws doing so. But states do not have the power to permanently observe daylight saving time.

     

    that’s why the Texas sans a belt slackers passed it.
    they knew it would never go anywhere but they can say well we tried

    smoke and mirrors kabuki.

  55. squawkbox Avatar
    squawkbox

    Texpat

    Dang it man I was gonna change my attitude toward pickle ball and then you summarily dashed my short lived enthusiasm..

  56. Texpat Avatar
    Texpat

    Squawk

    Her Highness wants me to tell you she is in complete agreement with you about the End Times.  She said the news report about the US District Judge in Manhattan conducting the kangaroo court over Donald Trump’s business posting bizarre semi-nude selfies of himself on his high school alumni website has finally convinced her the Apocalypse is probably going to be before the end of this week.

    I don’t know how much more absurd public life in America can get.

  57. squawkbox Avatar
    squawkbox

    Texpat

    Give her highness a hug for me.  Yanno a platonic one.  I ain’t taking an a$$ whooping form you or her.

    It does just seem to be getting weirder all the time in the world.

  58. Texpat Avatar
    Texpat

    Did one of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse look like Clarabelle the Clown ?

    I’m only asking for a friend.

  59. Super Dave Avatar
    Super Dave

    I’ve tried to convince him for years to add more more pork. 50/50 just doesn’t cut it with elk.

    I’ve always went with 60-40 for venison sausage and Summer Sausage but the guy in Clayhatchee makes regular sausage 50-50 but Summer Sausage 100% deer meat and it is dang good. El Gordo says it’s the best he’s ever had.  😉

  60. Super Dave Avatar
    Super Dave

    As for supper, I came in late and fixed me a couple of chicken sammaches from the leftover Publix baked chicken carcass. When my wife finally got off the phone with her San Leon buddy she had leftover refried beans and guacamole with chips.

    I’ll be chipping up a big pile of privet hedge in the morning. I’ve already got the trailer staged and the wood chipper hooked up to the tractor so I’m ready to go.

  61. Texpat Avatar
    Texpat

    38 GJT

    Our voting place was the Cowboy Church on 1488 between here and Fields Store. Went in about noon and it was pretty busy, I think there were about nine machines and we were about sixth in line.

    Uhm, were any of the nine machines in the voting place slot machines ?  I mean, it is Waller County so I had to ask.

    When I was a youngster in Austin County, they always said don’t cross the Brazos River into Waller County after dark because you never know what those cops over there will do to outsiders, if you what I mean, son.

  62. squawkbox Avatar
    squawkbox

    It ain’t over till the Jardiance Woman sings.
    It is all over y’all.  The Jardiance woman just sang.  Somehow I cannot see her pole dancing.

  63. Dr phil Good-E=1984 Avatar
    Dr phil Good-E=1984

    It is all over y’all.  The Jardiance woman just sang.  Somehow I cannot see her pole dancing.

    texpat’s whole lotta girl in blue.

  64. Shannon Avatar
    Shannon

    48

    But Daddy phil,

    I did say that Federal law prevented….

  65. GJT Avatar
    GJT

    When I was a youngster in Austin County, they always said don’t cross the Brazos River into Waller County after dark because you never know what those cops over there will do to outsiders, if you what I mean, son.

    They pretty much just pick on the Prairie View residents these days. 😀

  66. Shannon Avatar
    Shannon

    the kangaroo court over Donald Trump’s business posting bizarre semi-nude selfies of himself on his high school alumni website

    Say what?

     

  67. Dr phil Good-E=1984 Avatar
    Dr phil Good-E=1984

    55 unck

    thought you was quoting an article.

  68. Shannon Avatar
    Shannon

    Kentucky Gov. race already called. The Democrat incumbent won reelection. All about abortion.

  69. Tedtam Avatar

    It wasn’t Trump taking selfies.  It was the judge hearing his case.

  70. Tedtam Avatar

    And She-Jack is in second place, set for a runoff.  Wouldn’t it be sweet to her get beaten?

  71. Tedtam Avatar

    But she’ll find a way to blame it on MAGA Republicans.

  72. Dr phil Good-E=1984 Avatar
    Dr phil Good-E=1984

    Kentucky Gov. race already called. The Democrat incumbent won reelection. All about abortion.

    “we have put together, I think, the most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics,” the wooden dummy

    The Kentucky Swamp Turtle will be so happy about that result he’ll probably eat several more pieces of swamp lettuce tonight.

  73. Shannon Avatar
    Shannon

    Okay.

    I’m just going to turn off internet until tomorrow.

    Because regardless of my low opinion of Trump or the judge, I don’t believe either posted semi-nude photos of themselves or of each other in high school.

  74. squawkbox Avatar
    squawkbox

    My wife was afraid of the dark… then she saw me naked and now she’s afraid of the light.

    Rodney Dangerfield
  75. Shannon Avatar
    Shannon

    Whitmire may be ahead, but only 2% of today’s ballots have been counted.

    The first ballots/machines didn’t even arrive at one the six drop off points until after 8:30.

  76. Texpat Avatar
    Texpat

    59 Shannon

    Kentucky Gov. race already called. The Democrat incumbent won reelection. All about abortion.

    I don’t believe it.

    I think it is about more than that.  Few elections, if any, are driven by fewer than three or four issues.

     

  77. Tedtam Avatar

    Shannon – the judge likes to post images of his naked torso at the gym, then post them to his alumni website.

    I saw the pics.

    Really.

    It’s like the Wiener pics, just higher.

  78. Dr phil Good-E=1984 Avatar
    Dr phil Good-E=1984

    The first ballots/machines didn’t even arrive at one the six drop off points until after 8:30.

    the fish is already stinking.

  79. Dr phil Good-E=1984 Avatar
    Dr phil Good-E=1984

    one fact I’ll always believe in is never believe a fact checker.

  80. Shannon Avatar
    Shannon

    It looks like Texans are voting down the proposition that would allow District judges to serve beyond the age of 75…..to 79.

  81. Shannon Avatar
    Shannon

    Ohio number 1 passes, allowing baby killing.

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