Election Day Predictions

Well, here it is. Election Day 2010. Even the Democrats realize this will not be a good day for them, although some of them won’t admit it publicly.

Here are my predictions (not based on any deep research, just watching the polls):

GOP’s net gain in the House will be 72 seats. The last few days I almost convinced myself I’m sandbagging, and they could gain even more, but I’m sticking with 72. That would mean the GOP having to take only 59% of the RCP tossup seats, certainly doable.

The Senate will be a 50-50 tie. The RCP tossup seats in Colorado, Illinois, Nevada and Pennsylvania will be GOP pickups, pushing the Republicans to 49. The remaining tossups are California, Washington, and West Virginia. I believe West Virginia will go GOP to make it 50. Now I’m “going rogue”. There are 33 Senate seats up for reelection in 2012. 23 of those are Democrats (counting the two independents that caucus with them), including Ben Nelson of Nebraska. I predict shortly after inauguration day Nelson will switch parties and run as a Republican in 2012.

Governors will be 32-18 in favor of the GOP. Completely wild guess.

Here are a couple of billboards captured by Wagonburner in the Dallas area:


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GJT
GJT
November 3, 2010 12:20 am

#158

Dang, the Libertarian at 1.29%. I woulda bet my mama’s oatmeal she’d get 2%.

LurkerGoneWild
LurkerGoneWild
November 3, 2010 12:05 am

(sticking head out of LurkCave)

OMG!! Guv wannabe Bill White concedes to Rick Perry !! See speech at Channel 2’s website “click2houston.com”

And he’s slightly ahead in the polls!! As of 11:12 p.m. 49.36% to 49.07% on
Harris county site http://election.co.harris.tx.us/Cumulative/cumulative.pdf

OMG!!

/withdrawing into LurkCave…

El Gordo
November 2, 2010 11:56 pm

#146 – Hope you’ve got deep pockets to take care of your brother in Calif. when he finally hitches a ride back to Texas.

El Gordo
November 2, 2010 11:54 pm

Could have been better. Could have been a heck of a lot worse. If California wants to commit suicide, let ’em. The public sector unions control the vote and the state government, but soon, the only thing left will be the public sector unions. I guess they can all just keep an eye on each other and tax each other… Read more »

Darren
Darren
November 2, 2010 11:43 pm

With heavy support from Republican votes in the counties yet to be counted, Angle may win but that seems “iffy”. And I’ve no idea what the political and population makeup of those counties are. If Reid wins then, “poopies”.

Darren
Darren
November 2, 2010 11:32 pm

Yup, Reid’s victory has been projected.

Tedtam
Admin
November 2, 2010 11:21 pm

I wonder how well Reid would have done if SEIU had not had control of the voting machines. Or if they had not pushed so hard on get out the vote for the Democrats. If the unions weren’t in such cahoots with the Dems, what would our governing bodies look like, I wonder?

Tedtam
Admin
November 2, 2010 11:19 pm

And a sizeable ego.
It’ll be interesting to see if he crows tomorrow about his win.

Katfish
November 2, 2010 11:19 pm

NBC just CALLED Obama’s own former Senate seat for an R victory

How SWEET it IS!

Darren
Darren
November 2, 2010 11:18 pm

Reid currently has a sizable lead.

Tedtam
Admin
November 2, 2010 11:18 pm

Fox is calling Kirk to win. Obama’s old seat, eh?
Shades of things to come?

Darren
Darren
November 2, 2010 11:15 pm

California – financial troubles.

And they elect Brown?!

Although Prop 19 will not likely win with the votes, it’s already won socially. Well, that and the union message.

Darren
Darren
November 2, 2010 11:14 pm

Looks like Toomey won!

Tedtam
Admin
November 2, 2010 11:13 pm

California – financial troubles.

And they elect Brown?!

I have a brother there. I hope he’s got deep pockets.

Darren
Darren
November 2, 2010 11:11 pm

Whitman lost. 🙁

Darren
Darren
November 2, 2010 11:06 pm

Brown/Whitman pretty close right now. 12% precincts reporting.

Darren
Darren
November 2, 2010 11:05 pm

GJT;

That’s funny.

Darren
Darren
November 2, 2010 11:04 pm

Looks like Kirk’s gonna take it.

GJT
GJT
November 2, 2010 10:57 pm

He gets the Speaker’s plane. 😀

http://www.jaunted.com/files/3/pelosi_plane.jpg

Hamous
November 2, 2010 10:51 pm

Why is Boehner crying? He’s not on Oprah.

wagonburner
Editor
November 2, 2010 10:46 pm

Chron sez 50.3 – 49.7 against for Prop 1 w/98% of precincts reporting. Hope it holds.

Darren
Darren
November 2, 2010 10:41 pm

Grrrr, it’s “Alexi” Darren. Get it right!

Darren
Darren
November 2, 2010 10:40 pm
Tedtam
Admin
November 2, 2010 10:35 pm

#135 WB

Yes, I know you were. It just wisses me off, the way this thing is written.

wagonburner
Editor
November 2, 2010 10:33 pm

I’m just telling you why it’s worded the way it was.

I would have voted against it if I could have.

Darren
Darren
November 2, 2010 10:32 pm

Change Alexis to 46%; Kirk is at 48%

Tedtam
Admin
November 2, 2010 10:31 pm

#131 Wagonburner

Fee is spelled T-A-X. Look it up.

wagonburner
Editor
November 2, 2010 10:29 pm

At least Prop 3 is losing by a bigger margin now.

wagonburner
Editor
November 2, 2010 10:26 pm

It’s a fee, not a tax.

If it were a tax, your church would be exempt. Fees can be collected from anyone.

Tedtam
Admin
November 2, 2010 10:18 pm

Prop 1 is close. Our church is struggling – I don’t know how we’re going to handle another tax.

Darren
Darren
November 2, 2010 10:17 pm

Kirk now 48%; Alexis at 47%

Tedtam
Admin
November 2, 2010 10:14 pm

#126 Hamous

I didn’t know you were expecting! Seriously, Maddox Hobbs? You have to be kidding.

Darren
Darren
November 2, 2010 10:13 pm

So this is where elecetion talk’s hangin’ out.

Hamous
November 2, 2010 10:10 pm

Maddox Hobbs

That’s the name we were gonna pick!

GJT
GJT
November 2, 2010 10:08 pm

Boxer is gonna win. 😥

Tedtam
Admin
November 2, 2010 10:06 pm

Has anyone heard the results for that woman running in Illinois? Crenshaw, I think?

GJT
GJT
November 2, 2010 10:04 pm

Orlando Sanchez is finally back on the dole elected!

Tedtam
Admin
November 2, 2010 10:01 pm

Maddox Hobbs (last name goes here)

Hamous
November 2, 2010 10:00 pm

So what is his name?

Tedtam
Admin
November 2, 2010 9:42 pm

Everyone is fine. My sister is on cloud nine – her first grandbaby.

Big45Iron
Big45Iron
November 2, 2010 9:35 pm

Congrats to all Tedtam. Everybody is well?

Tedtam
Admin
November 2, 2010 9:01 pm

He’s already been named. His middle name is in honor of a Houston firefighter who was killed while trying to save someone in a fire. The man was a good friend of my nephew’s. I don’t think you’re gonna be able to change the name.

wagonburner
Editor
November 2, 2010 8:53 pm

Can we name him?

Tedtam
Admin
November 2, 2010 8:49 pm

Since no one is looking at open comments:

I just found out my nephew has a new bouncing baby boy!

WHOOOP!

mharper42
mharper42
November 2, 2010 8:34 pm

#114

Yeah, but that’s a race where you could vote for a Libertarian w/o risking that a Democrat would win.

wagonburner
Editor
November 2, 2010 8:27 pm

Libertarian alert!!!

Culberson’s Libertarian opponent is getting 15% of the vote.

wagonburner
Editor
November 2, 2010 8:21 pm

late 70′s bitchin surferspeak

🙄

mharper42
mharper42
November 2, 2010 8:16 pm

I’ll pass on learning “late 70′s b!tchin surferspeak”. I was working & in graduate school in Texas back then, not on a beach in Kalifornia. No surfin for this “dude”.

Sarge
Sarge
November 2, 2010 8:01 pm

106 mharper42 says: November 2, 2010 at 7:45 pm #103 Sarge Hey, I am not a dude! And my question is not answered. Why would Connecticut be the only state where Obama would still be popular? As opposed to any other New England state… Dude. When I say dude, I don’t mean you’re a dude. And I’m not talking to… Read more »

Big45Iron
Big45Iron
November 2, 2010 8:00 pm

Out of a sense of kindness, perhaps a diner will offer Grayson a job washing dishes. If he doesn’t qualify there, perhaps McDonald’s needs somebody to empty trash cans.